Global Climate Report 2025
The World Meteorological Organization releases 2025 Global Climate Report, aimed at analyzing global climate risks over the next five years.
The World Meteorological Organization believes that global temperatures will continue to remain at historic highs over the next five years, and the impact of climate risks on society, economy, and sustainable development will continue to increase.
Related Post: World Meteorological Organization Releases 2023 Global Climate Report
Global Climate Summary of the Past Five Years
2024 is the hottest year on record globally, with the average near surface temperature expected to be 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than the baseline levels from 1850 to 1990. Additionally, near surface temperatures in almost all land areas are above the long-term average. From 2020 to 2024, La Ni ñ a has occurred globally for three consecutive years, with more pronounced high temperatures in the northern hemisphere.
The World Meteorological Organization, based on 220 forecast models released by 14 global agencies, believes that the global average near surface temperature has continued to rise since 1960, with 2024 and 2023 being the hottest years on record. The main reason for this is that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached its highest level in 800000 years.
Global Climate Forecast of the Next Five Years
From 2025 to 2029, the global annual average temperature may continue to reach historic highs and far exceed the annual average temperature of the past 60 years. The World Meteorological Organization predicts that the global near surface temperature will exceed the baseline level by 1.2 to 1.9 degrees Celsius in the next five years, with an 86% probability of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius in at least one year and a 70% probability of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius on average over five years. 1.5 degrees Celsius is an important warming target of the Paris Agreement.
If calculated based on the other warming target of 2 degrees Celsius of the Paris Agreement, there is a 1% probability of at least one year exceeding 2 degrees Celsius in the next five years.
Based on the estimated level of global warming in 2024, the World Meteorological Organization believes that the level of warming caused by human activities is 1.1 to 1.7 degrees Celsius, and the estimated value of global warming is 1.34 to 1.41 degrees Celsius. The estimated global warming from 2025 to 2029 is 1.22 degrees Celsius to 1.54 degrees Celsius, and temperatures in almost all regions may be higher than the average level from 1991 to 2020, with warming in the northern hemisphere expected to intensify. Based on this prediction, global sea ice concentration will continue to decrease, with humid weather in Europe and Asia continuing, and dry weather in tropical regions continuing.
Reference:
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update
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